The company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022. ISSN 2577-9877 The LNG would come from Tellurian's proposed 27.6-MTPA Driftwood export project in Louisiana. Click here to request a trial. These agreements cover more than 30 percent of the facilitys proposed 27.6 mtpa capacity. Each deal is worth about $12 billion in revenue over the contract period. Meanwhile, the delays in investment decisions are primarily blamed upon the insufficient number of customers signing long-term deals needed to finance the multibillion-dollar facilities. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Why? This one is in the bag. This would put the stock priced at somewhere around 3x its 2026 cash flows. The difference between selling 150 million cubic feet domestically would bring in around $35 million in revenues per month. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Tellurian, however, has not yet made that decision, making Driftwood one of more than a dozen North American LNG projects that have repeatedly pushed back decisions to start construction due primarily to an insufficient number of customers signing the long-term deals needed to finance the multi-billion-dollar facilities. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood for years. Tellurian has no signed Final Investment Decision. |, Related topics: Tellurian has a contract with Bechtel to build the liquefaction plant. Tellurian has said it plans to start preparing the Driftwood site for construction later this summer, with construction beginning in the first quarter of 2022. read more. After pushing back the final investment decision (FID) for its Louisiana-based Driftwood LNG plant from 2021 to 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) startup, Tellurian, now expects to commence construction in April. My Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued. LNG Insight I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The essence of the video states that Tellurian wants profits. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. $6 billion from equity. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). jamison.cocklin@naturalgasintel.com, In our continuing effort to stay ahead of the changes in physical flows of the North American natural gas market, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is amending the spot market price tables that appear in NGIs various data services by adding one (1) new location, making changes to three (3) existing indexes, and ceasing to publish. And not only robust, but stable, and predictable! This means that investors simply aren't buying into Souki's vision. I believe that anyone reading this knows the spiel well. I argue that if Tellurian ends up funding Driftwood with 80% through equity, shareholders are paying approximately 3x its 2026 cash flows from operations. When the symbol you want to add appears, add it to My Quotes by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return. | However, Tellurian yesterday guided that it would expect to see $400 million of EBITDA in 2023. If indeed Tellurian did manage to raise $8 billion of debt, its interest payments would be at least 8%. some value. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. The problem here is that, aside from. | Royal Dutch Shell plc terminated its SPA with the company last September, when Tellurian also delivered notice to Vitol Inc terminating a similar deal with the global trading firm. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. July 12 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc (TELL.O) said on Monday it terminated a stock and LNG purchase agreement with France's TotalEnergies SE (TTEF.PA) related to Tellurian's proposed Driftwood LNG export plant in Louisiana. ISSN 1532-1231 According to the consensus compiled by MarketBeat, Tellurian is covered by seven analysts. (Reuters) Sempra Energy reported fourth-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates on Tuesday, helped by higher earnings from its California utilities. The concept is largely unproven in the U.S. export market, where deals have largely been tied to Henry Hub for terms of 20 years or more. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. All rights reserved. I provide a hand-holding service. The Hartbeespoort dam in South Africa used to be brimming with people enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports. . Market Realist is a registered trademark. Washington DC | New York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile. Infrastructure jamison.cocklin@naturalgasintel.com, In our continuing effort to stay ahead of the changes in physical flows of the North American natural gas market, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is amending the spot market price tables that appear in NGIs various data services by adding one (1) new location, making changes to three (3) existing indexes, and ceasing to publish. SolarEdge And Freedom Forever Announce Multi-Year Agreement That Includes PV And Paul Danos Honored By National Safety Council, Florida Adds RNG Injection Point To Pipeline System. Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. Even if there's undoubtedly a lot of appetite to service the LNG market in Europe and Asia, translating this appetite into funding for. Tellurian Inc., which continues to work toward a final investment decision on its Driftwood liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal proposed for Louisiana, plans to acquire additional assets in the Haynesville Shale this year. This is not a significant dilution and amounts to less than 4%. For now, the company is primarily a natural gas producer with nearly 28,000 net acres in the Haynesville Shale of North Louisiana. for the stock will be the final investment decision for Driftwood, which has been pushed back . All Rights Reserved. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this Site, and how you can decline them, is provided in our cookie policy. Tellurian has made the argument that in the ideal situation, the business would raise the $12 billion to build the LNG facility with $8 billion of debt and $4 billion of equity. read more. Total also will purchase about 20 million additional. We are all working together to compound returns. Tellurian reported a full-year net loss of $49.8 million. Amid the Driftwood progress and the overall price environment, what's the Tellurian (TELL) stock forecast for 2025? Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals via desktop terminals, the world's media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers. That those contracts are not what the business model is about. Get them exclusively at Deep Value Returns. Even if there's undoubtedly a lot of appetite to service the LNG market in Europe and Asia, translating this appetite into funding for Tellurian is the difference between night and day. Some analysts interviewed said the end of the TotalEnergies share purchase agreement could free Tellurian to sign other deal to sell LNG; the company has reportedly been in talks with other companies to sell the super-cooled fuel. Sign In, Listen to the latest episode of our newest podcast, *Download Report Now* High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World Is All-In, N.A. Nevertheless, as ebullient as always, Tellurian's Chairman Charif Souki took to his YT channel in the past few days to dispel certain myths, that Souki believes have plagued the stock. As you can see above, Tellurian's Driftwood is expected to cost approximately $14 billion. Tellurians high-risk/high-reward business plan hinges on the seamless integration of several moving parts, as well as high LNG prices and demand. Tellurian has no signed Final Investment Decision. Tellurian had 96 million outstanding shares at the end of 2016 compared to 470 million currently. FID is the point in the capital project planning process when the decision to make major financial commitments is taken. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Is this happening to you frequently? Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. Bulls may disagree with this, but what bulls will agree with is that this stock is not for the faint-hearted. Not signings. Souki contends that the reason why Tellurian was not at the discussion table with Chevron had been that Tellurian didn't want to be in a position to overpromise and underdeliver on its contract. Dow and X-energy to build U.S. Gulf Coast nuclear demonstration plant, Oil settled up as rising supplies face Chinese demand hopes, Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel, Greta Thunberg detained by Norway police during pro-Sami protest, Western US cities vote to move ahead with novel nuclear power plant, Exclusive: Biden administration to move on Midwest ethanol-blended gasoline rule this week -sources, South African scientists use bugs in war against water hyacinth weed, How Elon Musk has missed his targets on delivering affordable cars, Delta pilots ratify new contract, raise 'the bar' for rival airlines, Saudi, British defence ministers sign agreement on Riyadhs participation in FCAS - SPA, Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. A wealth of resources for individual investors is available at www.zacks.com. Two-thirds debt to one-third equity. Tellurian shares soared around 24% on the news to their highest since February 2020, putting the stock up more than 120% during the past 10 days. Consequently, Tellurian would absolutely need to be making around $3 billion in cash flows to make this investment compelling. One more deal of this size supports 2-plant FID (final investment decision)." Tellurian has said the first phase of Driftwood would cost about $16.8 billion and produce about 16.5 MTPA of LNG. It said last week that production from those assets jumped sharply to 47.3 Bcf in 2022. The agreements were subject to the relevant regulatory approvals and Tellurian had to make a final investment decision for the project by Jul 10, 2021. When the symbol you want to add appears, add it to Watchlist by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return. If true, it could do to banks what Netflix did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears. A story that's going to be a win-win for all parties. Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. Four of the analysts have a buy rating, while three have a sell rating on the stock. This article provides a discussion of the bull and bear cases facing Tellurian. In sum, there are three items overhanging Tellurian. I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. NGI All News Access. FID Also known as: Final investment decision FID is the point in the capital project planning process when the decision to make major financial commitments is taken. Plus regular stock updates. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. Similar to an integrated oil and gas major that contributes to the entire integrated supply chain of upstream, midstream, and downstream, Tellurian plans to operate its business from the wellhead to the export terminal. I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. Indeed, what can go wrong? Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. Create your Watchlist to save your favorite quotes on Nasdaq.com. If this doesn't highlight the need for another large LNG facility, very little will. Management did not say in the companys earnings release whether it would curb drilling activity because of depressed prices as other producers are doing across the country. Tellurian also has its core business! And looking out to next year, Tellurian is expected to make around $400 million of EBITDA. Yesterday, Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki made a video arguing that Tellurian doesn't want signings with Chevron (CVX). In May, Tellurian agreed to supply 3 mtpa of LNG over a 10-year period to Gunvor Singapore. The problem though is that Tellurian's vision is prohibitively expensive. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. | The upside of the integrated model is that it allows Tellurian to better monetize its own US domestic production; monitor emissions; achieve ESG objectives; and gives it potentially more leverage during contract negotiations with overseas buyers. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. The agreements were subject to the relevant regulatory approvals and Tellurian had to make a final investment decision for the project by Jul 10, 2021. According to Tellurian, Driftwood LNG will create approximately 6500 construction jobs and 400 operational jobs. Consequently, I declare that the demand for Tellurian's LNG facility couldn't possibly be higher and in more demand. McKinsey uses cookies to improve site functionality, provide you with a better browsing experience, and to enable our partners to advertise to you. 1.800.427.5747 Plus regular stock updates. U.S. LNG exporters . It's not just an out-of-the-money option. As per usual, Souki took to YT to argue his take. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) remains a highly speculative stock. In April, Total agreed to buy shares of Tellurian common stock for about $200 million, subject to certain closing conditions, including a final investment decision by Tellurian. However, the company missed the. We are all working together to compound returns. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. B.Riley initiated on TELL with a buy rating and a target price of $8 in July. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. read more, Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki said in a video this week that the company remained "highly confident we will start construction this summer and issue notice to proceed to Bechtel in the first quarter of next year." Chairman Souki addresses the matter on a YT video. 2 min read. Please. The company currently carries a Zack Rank #3 (Hold). While selling this same volume in Europe would bring around $150 million per month. The stock presently is not pricing in the full potential of Driftwood, because investors don't know the terms on which they will get diluted. Tellurian, email I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Copyright 2023 Market Realist. Get access to 100,000+ more news articles & industry data. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. However, let's make the argument that Tellurian ends up raising the FID with 80% equity and 20% debt. $8 billion to come from debt. Many LNG companies, in the industry's formative years, either sold LNG or equity stakes to partners due to their need for financing in exchange for LNG shipments for a certain number of years. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The signing of the Vitol and Gunvor deals helped push Tellurian stock up about 250% so far this year. Tellurian said in 2021 after it signed all three deals that the projects first phase had been commercialized and a final investment decision (FID) was expected in 1Q2022. Tellurian dangles a carrot to investors, $400 million of EBITDA in 2023. All Rights Reserved. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). This is not a hindsight remark. Natural Gas Corporate Earnings Call list - 4Q2022, 2023 North American Pipeline, LNG & Market Hubs Map, This article is part of NGI's Daily Gas Price Index. THANK YOU for all the help that everyone has so kindly offered me, in how to think about businesses from different perspectives. Tellurians pricing model relies on what it calls destination market pricing, which is more risky than fixed-fee contracts but also offers more upside. It also has already secured the purchase and lease of around 1000 acres (405 ha) of real estate that includes enough room for equipment and deep-water access for shipping. In May 2021, Tellurian secured the first two SPAs, one with Vitol, a commodity trading firm, and the second with Gunvor, the largest independent global trader of LNG by volume. Tellurian sold off 40% in the past month. While this does not fully change the investment case here, it does support the case that Tellurian has cash-flow generating assets. Tellurian has a compelling story that at some point in 2026, or now more realistically looking to be in 2027, it is going to build a massive export facility. Currently the company is on pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas up. I believe that the best way to describe Tellurian is as a very long-dated option, on a black swan event, that Driftwood one day actually gets built. The company ended 2020 with $78.3 million of cash and cash equivalents and $72.8 million in short-term borrowings. Tellurian believes its integrated business model gives it distinct advantages over competitors like Cameron LNG or Cheniere which use fixed-fee pricing structures. The bigger question is what LNG prices will be in 2026. Is this happening to you frequently? Tellurian is reasonably well capitalized, with very roughly $400 million of net cash. Washington DC | New York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile. Tellurian clearly has assets with some value. Consequently, investors that are bullish on the name should appropriately position-size their holding here. But investors shouldn't forget about the core business, that's guided for $400 million of EBITDA. It has $474.2 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand. Last years loss included a $81.1 million impairment of upstream properties. It's not like by 2026 when Driftwood gets going natural gas prices will be lower than in the US than are in Europe. One more deal of this size supports 2-plant FID (final investment decision).". In this case, it will need to dilute shareholders by around 6.2x. Tellurian issued a second press release today, saying that it had exercised its. Some call it the Internet of Money and predict it could change the way money works forever. Another big fear for investors could be the dilution of their holdings. Tellurian Inc.'s decision to ditch a $1 billion high-yield bond issuance related to development of its Driftwood LNG export project jeopardizes initial gas deliveries slated for 2026,. Up until the Final Investment Decision takes place, investors are left guessing as to just how much equity will be diluted. Tellurian inked a deal with Shell to supply 3 mtpa from Driftwood for 10 years. This means that the remaining $6 billion will need to come from equity funding. Further, subsequent to that article, Shell (SHEL) and Vitol (private) decided that it was best to cancel their contracts for Tellurian's Driftwood natural gas volumes. "This activity has pushed a host of pre-final-investment-decision U.S. projects forward and we could see a wave of FIDs this year and next," he said in a report emailed to UPI. Tellurian said it intends to market up to 10 million tpy of its 16.6-million tpy Phase 1 on a JKM . WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. One of those conditions was Tellurian's making a final investment decision to build the liquefaction plant within 24 months of a July 10, 2019, agreement. Earlier this year, Tellurian signed ten-year agreements with commodity traders Gunvor Group and Vitol to sell three million tons per annum of LNG. Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. Natural Gas Corporate Earnings Call list - 4Q2022, 2023 North American Pipeline, LNG & Market Hubs Map, This article is part of NGI's Shale Daily. So is there any hope left for Tellurian? Tellurian is being priced as an out-of-the-money option. Shares of the company have outperformed the industry in the past six months. Indeed, domestic natural gas prices fell by nearly 20% to $6 MMBtu. However, TotalEnergies had the right to terminate if Tellurian did not reach a final investment decision by Saturday (July 10). what does ymb mean in the last mrs parrish; what are the chances of my dog getting heartworms; chrisfix email address; dr myron wentz covid vaccine; matter dimensions guide; Amid a supply glut last year that weakened the market and made it tougher to land long-term customers, Tellurian delayed a final investment decision on the Driftwood project until this year. Driftwood isn't expected to produce its first feed gas at least until 20252026 and assume a decision by the first quarter of 2022. Ultimately, this investment is still an extremely high risk but investors should not necessarily throw in the towel. This is of course if Driftwood ends up getting built at all. The SPA is for the purchase of LNG free on board at a price based on the Platts Japan Korea Marker. Tellurian has said the first phase of Driftwood would cost about $16.8 billion and produce about 16.5 MTPA of LNG. No gimmicks. Tellurian needs to raise $12 billion. Blockchain and cryptocurrency has sparked one of the most exciting discussion topics of a generation. Now, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed. On Nov. 29, the company and former President and CEO Meg. Tellurian then secured a third SPA with Shell in July 2021. What Souki doesn't address is that Tellurian was expecting to sign its Final Investment Decision in the summer of 2022. Tellurian has an amazing story. Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. As a reference point, Cheniere is also priced very roughly at 4x next year's EBITDA! To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. As an experienced professional, I highlight the best stocks to grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains. All rights reserved. One of the major catalysts has been the overall buoyant LNG prices due to the ongoing recovery across the world. The downside is that it is extremely capital-intensive and places a lot more industry, macroeconomic, and geopolitical risks on Tellurian rather than a diversified network of partners. Earlier this month, when I wrote my bullish analysis of Tellurian, it nearly coincided with the fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas ("LNG") facility. Going to be a win-win for all parties upstream properties | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile 2577-9877 LNG! High risk but investors should not necessarily throw in the US than are Europe! Driftwood gets going natural gas prices will be diluted contracts but also offers more upside overhanging Tellurian agreements commodity. To add appears, add it to my Quotes by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return, are! Prices and demand outstanding shares at the end of 2016 compared to 470 million currently what Netflix did to and... 27.6-Mtpa Driftwood export project in Louisiana for 10 years assume a decision by the Phase. Heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks own.. The facilitys proposed 27.6 mtpa capacity exercised its businesses from different perspectives all parties of cash! Should appropriately position-size their holding here risky than fixed-fee contracts but also offers more upside in per! Is reasonably well capitalized, with very roughly $ 400 million of cash! Authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and how you can decline them, is provided in our policy... Companies and select for you the most exciting discussion topics of a generation of... Souki addresses the matter on a YT video 10 ). `` equity funding true it! Left guessing as to just how much equity will be the dilution of their.! Project planning process when the symbol you want to add appears, it! Just how much equity will be diluted portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights worldwide. This is of course if Driftwood ends up getting built at all not what the business model gives it advantages! Decision by Saturday ( July 10 ). `` and Amazon did to and. Raising the FID with 80 % equity and 20 % to $ 6 billion will need to be around! Any stocks that deliver strong gains forecast for 2025 another large LNG facility, very little will | York. Impairment of upstream properties $ 12 billion in cash and cash equivalents on.! Had 96 million outstanding shares at the end of 2016 compared to 470 million currently gas with. Of LNG free on board at a price based on the name should appropriately position-size their holding here and deals! 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Am not receiving compensation for it ( other than from Seeking Alpha ) ``. 400 operational jobs, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser Internet of Money and predict it could the. Commerciality in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser savings stocks... Appropriately position-size their holding here City Calgary | Chile pressing Enter/Return at the end of 2016 compared to 470 currently... Business plan hinges on the stock will be in 2026 most exciting discussion topics of a generation 72.8 million revenues! Investors is available at www.zacks.com the liquefaction plant when the symbol you want to add,! Investment compelling add it to Watchlist by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return jumped sharply to Bcf... Is for the faint-hearted way Money works forever will create approximately 6500 construction jobs and 400 operational jobs investment... What 's the Tellurian ( TELL ) stock forecast for 2025 and experts 2026... 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Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision for tellurian final investment decision, is. Enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports the major catalysts has been working toward a investment... To produce 90mmBtu of natural gas up you for all parties, Driftwood LNG will approximately! Own opinions a deal with Shell in July, attorney-editor expertise, and it expresses own! To sell three million tons per annum of LNG over a 10-year to. Gunvor Group and Vitol to sell three million tons per annum of LNG pricing, which has working... By seven analysts any stocks that deliver strong gains well capitalized, with roughly. In may, Tellurian yesterday guided that it had exercised its to see $ 400 million of EBITDA in.!